Why targeting guerrilla groups and cartels doesn’t stop violence in Latin America – but focusing on geography might

Study suggests long-practiced strategy of taking out the heads of drug cartels may be missing underlying predictors of crime.

By: Stephen Pires, Florida International University; Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University; Juan Del Rio, Florida International University, and Rob T. Guerette, Florida International University, The Conversation

Outlets: The Conversation

Published: August 4, 2026

Words: 936

Last Updated: 2 weeks ago

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By Stephen Pires, Florida International University; Dylan Spencer, Georgia Southern University; Juan Del Rio, Florida International University, and Rob T. Guerette, Florida International University

Environmental features and geography may be a better predictor of homicides in Latin America than the prevalence of organized crime gangs.

That’s what we found in a recent study that analyzed homicide patterns across Colombian municipalities between 2010 and 2020.

As researchers in place-based criminology, we were …

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